Discussion Shenglong: China's Spaceplane

A thread on NSF that sparked some interest within me..

http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=23764.0

Especially the second last post with the images which depict Shenglong atop a CZ-2 core with two strap-ons. So what to we think? Is it destined to be an unmanned X-37 type vehicle, or a two/three man Spaceplane?

Well, especially if they're planning on manning it, the best that can happen is for it to end up like Buran and get canceled before it costs too much in money or lives.

Unless you have horizontal take off and the spacecraft is SSTO, wings are just dead weight and a safety hazard.
 
Ahem... you can't have a spaceplane without wings. That's the entire point. They're there for entry and landing, not launch.

Which applies to both a conventional vertical launch and any perspective TSTO horizontal launch as well.

Spaceplanes have capabilities that surpass that of capsule designs, which is the reason you'd want to make one. On the other hand, if they're attempting something like Hermes, with a 3 or 4 man crew, I really don't know what the point is (since capsules already fill that niche pretty well). On the other hand, a spaceplane design apparently proved advantageous enough for the US airforce to use for surveillance, etc.

The main problem with TPS exposure on STS was not due to the existence of wings, but rather the debris shedding from the ET. Find a way to eliminate that and things already become much safer.
 
Ahem... you can't have a spaceplane without wings. That's the entire point. They're there for entry and landing, not launch.

And they don't benefit you enough for simple reentry and landing to be worth it.

My entire point is that is a mistake on the part of the Chinese to be following our footsteps and building an expensive, low performance-per-mass, unsafe space plane. If they're lucky/smart, it'll end up like Buran rather than like the Shuttle.

Spaceplanes are a mistake because we don't have the tech to make them worthwhile. Wings can give you better cross-range on landing, but cross-range isn't as much of a concern for economical space access as the specifics of launch. Unless wings can be made to make launches more economical, they are useless dead weight. And they can't make launches more economical with current tech.

Which applies to both a conventional vertical launch and any perspective TSTO horizontal launch as well.

Horizontal launch that uses any more than a single stage is useless, you might as well go vertical. And if you go vertical, you might as well forget the wings. And I don't think we have the tech to make an SSTO spaceplane at the moment.

Plus, the shuttle showed what kind of maintenance such a vehicle needs with current tech, and with that, it would be cheaper to mass produce throwaway boosters and capsules than to refurbish a reusable craft after every flight.

Spaceplanes have capabilities that surpass that of capsule designs, which is the reason you'd want to make one. On the other hand, if they're attempting something like Hermes, with a 3 or 4 man crew, I really don't know what the point is (since capsules already fill that niche pretty well). On the other hand, a spaceplane design apparently proved advantageous enough for the US airforce to use for surveillance, etc.

Huh? Which design exactly are you talking about? I know of no production recon aircraft with the USAF that would fit the definition of "spaceplane".

The main problem with TPS exposure on STS was not due to the existence of wings, but rather the debris shedding from the ET. Find a way to eliminate that and things already become much safer.

Debris shedding from the ET was a factor, but with a capsule design, the heat shield would never have been exposed to the airstream, let alone debris, no matter how much the tank shed. And even if you eliminate tank shedding, or put the spaceplane on top of the booster, you've still got a birdstrike danger and little / no capability to abort the launch in case you hit a large enough bird to compromise the heat shield (Which you probably *would* have on a horizontal takeoff SSTO design, if such were possible with current tech).

Furthermore, wings are a *structural* liability. Challenger experienced g-loadings during the breakup similar to those experienced by the two Soyuz capsules that underwent launch aborts. The capsules and their crew survived. Challenger and its crew did not.
 
The concept diagrams remind me of DG-TX and DG-launcher :D

20071217_05.jpg


It looks like Loru's new spaceplane + stack&SRBs too :D
 
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And they don't benefit you enough for simple reentry and landing to be worth it.

Sure they do, they allow you to reenter and land.

I'm confused as to how an axisymmetric vehicle would be able to land a vehicle the size, mass and payload capability of the Shuttle in any reliable manner.

My entire point is that is a mistake on the part of the Chinese to be following our footsteps and building an expensive, low performance-per-mass, unsafe space plane. If they're lucky/smart, it'll end up like Buran rather than like the Shuttle.

Expensive and low performance per mass maybe, but unsafe? There is nothing intrinsically unsafe about spaceplanes. Even STS has a safety record similar to Soyuz (surprisingly), and any post-shuttle spaceplane design will inherit knowledge and wisdom from STS itself, which would not only make it safer, but make it more efficient and cost-effective as well.

There's nothing lucky or smart about ending up like Buran. That is just a waste of resources and time. STS actually produced returns, unlike Buran.

Horizontal launch that uses any more than a single stage is useless, you might as well go vertical. And if you go vertical, you might as well forget the wings.

I don't really see why horizontal launch using more than a single stage is useless, after all, many vehicles (including a lot of rocket-powered ones!) have been drop tested from mothership aircraft that took of horizontally. Granted, it's not the same thing, but it is a vaguely similar concept.

I don't think it makes as much sense as a single stage horizontal launch vehicle, but I still wouldn't put it in the "useless stupid bad idea" category.

And I don't think we have the tech to make an SSTO spaceplane at the moment.

We (probably) do, though any potential design would likely require 20 years of R&D. Skylon might be a good example.

Plus, the shuttle showed what kind of maintenance such a vehicle needs with current tech, and with that, it would be cheaper to mass produce throwaway boosters and capsules than to refurbish a reusable craft after every flight.

The shuttle showed that the shuttle needed that kind of maintainance. Any future design would use the knowledge and wisdom gained from a ~30 year shuttle program to improve on that.

STS isn't modern technology either... it's 1970s technology. It'd be more closely related to Apollo, technologically speaking, than any modern spaceplane design.

Mass producing boosters (and capsules) is by far the cheaper option, and definitely the better one in the current launch environment, but they cannot do a lot of the tasks you could with a spaceplane.

Huh? Which design exactly are you talking about? I know of no production recon aircraft with the USAF that would fit the definition of "spaceplane".

The Boeing X-37. Not sure if you could call it "in production", but obviously there were enough advantages to warrant the USAF to bother with it.

Debris shedding from the ET was a factor, but with a capsule design, the heat shield would never have been exposed to the airstream, let alone debris, no matter how much the tank shed. And even if you eliminate tank shedding, or put the spaceplane on top of the booster, you've still got a birdstrike danger and little / no capability to abort the launch in case you hit a large enough bird to compromise the heat shield (Which you probably *would* have on a horizontal takeoff SSTO design, if such were possible with current tech).

I'm highly skeptical of the birdstrike danger, especially because a launch vehicle is probably the most efficient bird scaring device ever created by humans. How many shuttles have been hit by birds on ascent? Or, how many shuttles have been hit by birds on descent, when such a phenomenon would be far more likely?

Besides, scaring birds away for launch is not impossible, bird scaring techniques are already employed at airports, and even the SLF.

Either way, any prospective TPS damage (such as that caused by MMOD impacts, a worry that is probably more relevant than birdstrikes) can be rectified by a TPS repair ability, or in the event of extremely severe damage, an on-orbit rescue. If proper techniques are developed for this, such a spaceplane project would have many safety measures where STS did not.

Furthermore, wings are a *structural* liability. Challenger experienced g-loadings during the breakup similar to those experienced by the two Soyuz capsules that underwent launch aborts. The capsules and their crew survived. Challenger and its crew did not.

I think that it has very little to do with wings and a lot to do with the structural integrity of the vehicle in general. The structural integrity of the wings means nothing if your main fuselage is being torn apart, and if such an accident occured with a "shuttle-C" cargo carrier attached to the tank, the results would have probably been identical.

Soyuz capsules are designed for those sorts of accelerations, the STS airframe is not, so in all honesty it's not surprising that they survived while Challenger was destroyed.

Launch abort is indeed a problem, STS can't abort within the first two minutes of ascent and the immediate abort modes after that (RTLS, ECAL) are pretty risky. That doesn't preclude the addition of a launch escape system on a future rocket-launched spaceplane (presumably those aboard a horizontally launched vehicle would be able to bail out as the vehicle is put into a controlled glide).

It doesn't help to prevent launch failures at all cost, either. There are things not even a LES can deal with, for example a failure could occur with the Soyuz vehicle that could result in LOC despite the fact that Soyuz has a LES.
 
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Sure they do, they allow you to reenter and land.

If by "land" you mean "make a runway landing", sure. But I'm not sure how valuable that is with current technology and the current state of space travel.

I'm confused as to how an axisymmetric vehicle would be able to land a vehicle the size, mass and payload capability of the Shuttle in any reliable manner.

Part of the problem is that the shuttle is much bigger than is needed. We have far less need for downlift capacity than uplift, and you get far better payload capacity sticking an uplifted payload on the same launcher as a capsule rather than putting it in a payload bay on a spaceplane (if it needs manned attention), or sticking it on a launcher all by itself (if it doesn't).

Expensive and low performance per mass maybe, but unsafe? There is nothing intrinsically unsafe about spaceplanes. Even STS has a safety record similar to Soyuz (surprisingly),

STS over the past two and a half decades has a safety record similar to Soyuz in the past four. And Soyuz hasn't had a fatality for almost the entirety of those four decades that it's been around.

and any post-shuttle spaceplane design will inherit knowledge and wisdom from STS itself, which would not only make it safer, but make it more efficient and cost-effective as well.

There's nothing lucky or smart about ending up like Buran. That is just a waste of resources and time. STS actually produced returns, unlike Buran.

If your country has not yet started a spaceplane program, there is nothing lucky or smart about starting one and ending up like Buran. If you *have* started a spaceplane program, then it is lucky/smart to have it end up like Buran and have the program go nowhere after a slight waste of resources and time, rather than have it end up like STS and have it set your space program back thirty years with an attendant large waste of money and time.

Buran failed to succeed well enough to push Soyuz out of the way. STS pushed the prospect of any more capable launcher out of the way, and here we are thirty years later at the end of the shuttle program with no certain successor.

The Russians were lucky/smart to cancel Buran and retain Soyuz, which is a much better idea than Buran. We were unlucky/dumb to have the Shuttle drown out the potential for a mass-producible successor to Apollo/Saturn. 30 years later, we *still* don't have one.

I don't really see why horizontal launch using more than a single stage is useless, after all, many vehicles (including a lot of rocket-powered ones!) have been drop tested from mothership aircraft that took of horizontally. Granted, it's not the same thing, but it is a vaguely similar concept.

The difference is in the fact that an effective first stage for an orbital vehicle ends up traveling much faster than the mothership in an air-drop test. Also, recall that most of these vehicles were test vehicles, rather than part of some sort of infrastructure meant to do anything other than validate concepts. (And those that were meant to progress any further than test vehicles while remaining air-dropped, such as the XF-85 generally failed miserably).

I'm highly skeptical of the birdstrike danger, especially because a launch vehicle is probably the most efficient bird scaring device ever created by humans. How many shuttles have been hit by birds on ascent?

1, albeit a tank-strike at low speed a few seconds after liftoff.

It's not an especially likely danger, but still a possible one.

Or, how many shuttles have been hit by birds on descent, when such a phenomenon would be far more likely?

I don't know, but regardless of likelyhood, a birdstrike on launch is more dangerous because the risk of compromise to the TPS it presents is *before* the hot part of reentry, whereas a birdstrike on descent would be overwhelmingly likely to occur after reentry, at some point below 30,000 feet, where damage to the TPS would not present any LOCV risk.

Besides, scaring birds away for launch is not impossible, bird scaring techniques are already employed at airports, and even the SLF.

Either way, any prospective TPS damage (such as that caused by MMOD impacts, a worry that is probably more relevant than birdstrikes) can be rectified by a TPS repair ability, or in the event of extremely severe damage, an on-orbit rescue. If proper techniques are developed for this, such a spaceplane project would have many safety measures where STS did not.



I think that it has very little to do with wings and a lot to do with the structural integrity of the vehicle in general. The structural integrity of the wings means nothing if your main fuselage is being torn apart, and if such an accident occured with a "shuttle-C" cargo carrier attached to the tank, the results would have probably been identical.

Soyuz capsules are designed for those sorts of accelerations, the STS airframe is not, so in all honesty it's not surprising that they survived while Challenger was destroyed.

They are designed for such accelerations because they *can* be designed for such accelerations without making them obscenely heavy. A winged design is simply harder to stress for g's, and will experience higher g's at high AOAs. Wings are likely to break before the fuselage of an atmospheric vehicle, and if the fuselage does break, are likely to provide the forces that break it.

(Also, Soyuz 18a ended up 5 g's over the design limit and both vehicle and crew survived).

Also note that the crew cabin of Challenger stayed fairly intact until impact, and crew members are thought to have survived the immediate breakup, only to be rendered unconscious by lack of air and then killed by the final impact. A capsule of similar size, equipped with parachutes, mounted on top of the stack, and equipped with an LES would quite possibly have brought its crew back alive.

Furthermore, the breakup of the orbiter itself in the Challenger breakup was a result of aerodynamic forces: Both SRB's, including the one that was the cause of the whole disaster, continued in powered flight for 37 seconds until destroyed by range safety, despite also sitting next to the tank when it fell apart and being showered in debris (and being already compromised *and* having hit the tank, in the case of the right SRB). A capsule at the top of the stack, especially if equipped with an LES to carry it clear, would have been upwind of the breakup and would likely have encountered much less in the way of both aerodynamic forces and debris, as well as likely being able to handle more of both.

Launch abort is indeed a problem, STS can't abort within the first two minutes of ascent and the immediate abort modes after that (RTLS, ECAL) are pretty risky. That doesn't preclude the addition of a launch escape system on a future rocket-launched spaceplane (presumably those aboard a horizontally launched vehicle would be able to bail out as the vehicle is put into a controlled glide).

Not just that, but many types of launch abort with a HTOL spacecraft might simply involve shutting off the engines and beginning a descent towards a suitably located airfield. A birdstrike could be dealt with in a similar manner to any aircraft birdstrike.

It doesn't help to prevent launch failures at all cost, either. There are things not even a LES can deal with, for example a failure could occur with the Soyuz vehicle that could result in LOC despite the fact that Soyuz has a LES.

It could, but a capsule/LES design is much more resilient against failures of the rest of the launch stack than a winged design, especially a winged design bolted to the side of the stack shuttle-style.
 
It looks like a Hermes, which is no surprise since their CZ-4 was already having too many similarities to the Ariane 4. :lol:

(Like people lately found out: Chinese students are great in memorizing things, but fail epically at creativity)

What should be said in the discussion: A spaceplane does not inherit all weaknesses of the Shuttle, because they are deeply Shuttle specific.

A parachute is not automatically safer than landing by wings. If the wings are damaged, you are screwed, if the parachute compartment has a small dent or the pyro-batteries are frozen, you are are not looking better. There are as many things that can likely go wrong for wings, than what can go wrong for parachutes.

Wings have one big advantage over parachutes: They can start working in a much wider envelope of dynamic pressures, because you have more control over them. The parachutes require a carefully tuned window of dynamic pressures,or they either don't open properly, or are destroyed. And your chances to bring the wings in the right window start at deorbit.

Also, the system costs are much lower by the wings: If you land on a runway, you need a much smaller recovery team. Can you imagine how much money a day of a small aircraft carrier costs?

The Space Shuttle was ahead of its time and the technology, but space planes had been designed and tested already long before it and are rock solid technology. The Shuttle became its complex master piece of buying from the lowest bidder because it also got the huge payload bay and three expensive high-performance rocket engines in its back. But that does not need to be done again.
 
If by "land" you mean "make a runway landing", sure. But I'm not sure how valuable that is with current technology and the current state of space travel.

For starters it saves you a trip in an aircraft carrier or a fleet of helicopters flying into some 500km wide steppe...

Part of the problem is that the shuttle is much bigger than is needed. We have far less need for downlift capacity than uplift, and you get far better payload capacity sticking an uplifted payload on the same launcher as a capsule rather than putting it in a payload bay on a spaceplane (if it needs manned attention), or sticking it on a launcher all by itself (if it doesn't).

So you're entirely denying the usefulness of payload return from orbit? Not all payloads can be thrown away to burn up in the Earth's atmosphere, some research payloads (such as LDEF, a classic example of shuttle capabilities) are a good example of that.

In addition a spaceplane allows you to have a "work platform" in space, it's kinda advantageous when you get to keep all those tools and equipment for future missions rather than burning it all up.

STS over the past two and a half decades has a safety record similar to Soyuz in the past four. And Soyuz hasn't had a fatality for almost the entirety of those four decades that it's been around.

But in that time, the two have flown a similar amount of missions. It's number of flights that counts, not time.

I can also say that at least one shuttle accident was not caused by the vehicle at all, but rather bad management. The other is more of a critical design flaw within itself, yes. But for what it is technologically- and for all the huge! gigantic! dangers! intrinsic to it's design, it has pretty remarkable safety.

If your country has not yet started a spaceplane program, there is nothing lucky or smart about starting one and ending up like Buran. If you *have* started a spaceplane program, then it is lucky/smart to have it end up like Buran and have the program go nowhere after a slight waste of resources and time, rather than have it end up like STS and have it set your space program back thirty years with an attendant large waste of money and time.

I would definitely not call STS a program that "set the space program back 30 years". Many things were learnt during the shuttle program, and it's explored new boundaries to an extent- albeit technological and historical ones, rather than spatial ones.

In short, even though more money was spent (and wasted) on STS, it provided far more advances than Buran ever did in it's "cost saving cancellation".

Buran failed to succeed well enough to push Soyuz out of the way. STS pushed the prospect of any more capable launcher out of the way, and here we are thirty years later at the end of the shuttle program with no certain successor.

The Russians were lucky/smart to cancel Buran and retain Soyuz, which is a much better idea than Buran. We were unlucky/dumb to have the Shuttle drown out the potential for a mass-producible successor to Apollo/Saturn. 30 years later, we *still* don't have one.

Honestly, I don't think they had a choice about Buran, considering their economic situation. And STS was supposed to be the regular successor to Apollo/Saturn and more, it just didn't turn out to be. At least not enough, anyway- there were still improvements in launch infrastructure cost over the Saturns, for example, but not nearly enough to present the system as the cost effective regular, revolutionary one it was advertised as.

The difference is in the fact that an effective first stage for an orbital vehicle ends up traveling much faster than the mothership in an air-drop test. Also, recall that most of these vehicles were test vehicles, rather than part of some sort of infrastructure meant to do anything other than validate concepts. (And those that were meant to progress any further than test vehicles while remaining air-dropped, such as the XF-85 generally failed miserably).

XF-85 didn't fail because it was air dropped, it failed because it was, all round, a pretty crappy idea.

These test aircraft are dropped from bombers. A dedicated system would use dedicated vehicles. I don't see why it's impossible or bad in any way, it makes less sense than an SSTO because of the increase in system and launch complexity, but it's nowhere near as silly as the XF-85, for example.

I don't know, but regardless of likelyhood, a birdstrike on launch is more dangerous because the risk of compromise to the TPS it presents is *before* the hot part of reentry, whereas a birdstrike on descent would be overwhelmingly likely to occur after reentry, at some point below 30,000 feet, where damage to the TPS would not present any LOCV risk.

Of course, but that's not my point. My point is that birdstrike liklihood is far higher on approach and landing than it is on launch (you don't have birds getting scared away from the launch site). The low speed impact seemed like a relatively isolated incident, and happened early enough in the launch that it did not cause damage. By the time the stack is fast enough for such a strike to cause considerable damage, birds would have been scared well away by the launch. I'm no avian behaviour expert when it comes to rocket launches, but if I were a bird, I'd probably get the heck out of there as fast as possible.

Bird strikes damaging the TPS is probably the last thing you'd want to worry about, MMOD threat is far more problematic.

They are designed for such accelerations because they *can* be designed for such accelerations without making them obscenely heavy. A winged design is simply harder to stress for g's, and will experience higher g's at high AOAs. Wings are likely to break before the fuselage of an atmospheric vehicle, and if the fuselage does break, are likely to provide the forces that break it.

Exactly. Nothing intrinsic to wings, any structure of the size and vague shape as the orbiter (such as a wingless cargo pod) would be just as hard to protect against obscene accelerations.

(Also, Soyuz 18a ended up 5 g's over the design limit and both vehicle and crew survived).

That's nice, but not special. I can make several things survive 5 Gs over their design limit, including rocks and metal ingots...

Also note that the crew cabin of Challenger stayed fairly intact until impact, and crew members are thought to have survived the immediate breakup, only to be rendered unconscious by lack of air and then killed by the final impact. A capsule of similar size, equipped with parachutes, mounted on top of the stack, and equipped with an LES would quite possibly have brought its crew back alive.

Yes. Or, a breakaway capsule, with a crew protected by escape suits, could also have potentially brought the crew back alive.

I'm talking about capsule breakup in a different scenario entirely (for example, regarding launchers that actually launch capsules, instead of shuttle stacks). I believe a simulation for Orion, at least, showed a particular second stage failure as sending high velocity fragments through and past the capsule before the LES had time to fire.

Furthermore, the breakup of the orbiter itself in the Challenger breakup was a result of aerodynamic forces: Both SRB's, including the one that was the cause of the whole disaster, continued in powered flight for 37 seconds until destroyed by range safety, despite also sitting next to the tank when it fell apart and being showered in debris (and being already compromised *and* having hit the tank, in the case of the right SRB). A capsule at the top of the stack, especially if equipped with an LES to carry it clear, would have been upwind of the breakup and would likely have encountered much less in the way of both aerodynamic forces and debris, as well as likely being able to handle more of both.

The crew cabin was on the side of the tank, was attached to a disentegrating vehicle, and caught in that airflow, and wasn't specially designed to survive an accident like that. Yet it survived the actual disentegration intact, the astronauts onboard were just badly protected from the conditions at altitude. And a high velocity water impact.

But there's an even better precaution, that can be used to eliminate a Challenger-like failure entirely: Have proper management, proper safety precautions, and don't make skimp or make compromises on safety, anywhere. Challenger happened not because STS was a bad vehicle, but because of bad management.

Not just that, but many types of launch abort with a HTOL spacecraft might simply involve shutting off the engines and beginning a descent towards a suitably located airfield. A birdstrike could be dealt with in a similar manner to any aircraft birdstrike.

Well yes, in that case you could return to (a) base if you wish.

HTOL is by far safer when compared to HTVL.

It could, but a capsule/LES design is much more resilient against failures of the rest of the launch stack than a winged design, especially a winged design bolted to the side of the stack shuttle-style.

The wings don't matter. The wings are gone at that point, you're leaving them behind...

The idea is to have some sort of breakaway pod from the spaceplane itself, saving the entire vehicle would be far too clumsy.
 
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For starters it saves you a trip in an aircraft carrier or a fleet of helicopters flying into some 500km wide steppe...



So you're entirely denying the usefulness of payload return from orbit? Not all payloads can be thrown away to burn up in the Earth's atmosphere, some research payloads (such as LDEF, a classic example of shuttle capabilities) are a good example of that.

I think that, at the current time, such a capability is far overrated. Most of what we're sending into space spends its entire service life there. A project like LDEF could just as easily be done on a wing of the ISS, or, if absolute isolation is key, you could still just have an LDEF type frame out there and switch individual experiments out, packing them into a smaller payload bay.

In addition a spaceplane allows you to have a "work platform" in space, it's kinda advantageous when you get to keep all those tools and equipment for future missions rather than burning it all up.

It's even more useful to leave those tools and equipment on your space station so you get to use them on multiple missions without lifting them over and over and over again.

But in that time, the two have flown a similar amount of missions. It's number of flights that counts, not time.

OK, I'll concede that point, but the time since the last fatality, both in flights and in years, has been much longer with Soyuz.

I can also say that at least one shuttle accident was not caused by the vehicle at all, but rather bad management.

The *accident* was caused by bad management. The fatal results of the accident were the result of serious design flaws. The serious design flaws were the result of bad management and bad politics.

The other is more of a critical design flaw within itself, yes. But for what it is technologically- and for all the huge! gigantic! dangers! intrinsic to it's design, it has pretty remarkable safety.



I would definitely not call STS a program that "set the space program back 30 years". Many things were learnt during the shuttle program, and it's explored new boundaries to an extent- albeit technological and historical ones, rather than spatial ones.

In short, even though more money was spent (and wasted) on STS, it provided far more advances than Buran ever did in it's "cost saving cancellation".

The question isn't just what the Shuttle gained us vs. what Buran gained the Russians, but also what a more sensible design could have gained us and didn't vs. what Soyuz could have gained the Russians and did.

Honestly, I don't think they had a choice about Buran, considering their economic situation. And STS was supposed to be the regular successor to Apollo/Saturn and more, it just didn't turn out to be. At least not enough, anyway- there were still improvements in launch infrastructure cost over the Saturns, for example, but not nearly enough to present the system as the cost effective regular, revolutionary one it was advertised as.

And my point is that a tower/capsule system would have been far more likely to make good on its promises than a spaceplane. At the moment, spaceplanes are like trying to learn to run before you've learned to walk.

XF-85 didn't fail because it was air dropped, it failed because it was, all round, a pretty crappy idea.

In the case of the XF-85, I find the distinction between the two a very hard one to make. The entire idea was to be an air-dropped escort fighter.

Exactly. Nothing intrinsic to wings, any structure of the size and vague shape as the orbiter (such as a wingless cargo pod) would be just as hard to protect against obscene accelerations.

What?! My entire point is that these things *are* intrinsic to wings. For a given weight, a wing cannot be stressed to as many g's as a cylinder (such as a fuselage or wingless cargo pod), and will (in fact, is designed to) provide greater aerodynamic forces than a cylinder. Furthermore, the joint between a wing and a cylinder provides structural weak points that neither would have alone.

That's nice, but not special. I can make several things survive 5 Gs over their design limit, including rocks and metal ingots...

And a capsule resembles these objects more than does a spaceplane.

Yes. Or, a breakaway capsule, with a crew protected by escape suits, could also have potentially brought the crew back alive.

Could work, but NASA nixed the idea because of the way it cut into payload weight, among other things.

I'm talking about capsule breakup in a different scenario entirely (for example, regarding launchers that actually launch capsules, instead of shuttle stacks). I believe a simulation for Orion, at least, showed a particular second stage failure as sending high velocity fragments through and past the capsule before the LES had time to fire.

Yes. Even the most survivable designs will always have situations that will destroy them. But all else being equal in a multi-stage launch stack, a capsule will always be significantly more survivable than a spaceplane mounted in the same place, and is often easier to mount in safe places.

The crew cabin was on the side of the tank, was attached to a disentegrating vehicle, and caught in that airflow, and wasn't specially designed to survive an accident like that. Yet it survived the actual disentegration intact, the astronauts onboard were just badly protected from the conditions at altitude. And a high velocity water impact.

My point exactly: The cabin survived, but quite possibly lost pressure integrity from the rest of the spacecraft separating from it, and relied on the wings to bring it down safely to the ground. With those gone, it was not survivable.
 
I think that, at the current time, such a capability is far overrated. Most of what we're sending into space spends its entire service life there. A project like LDEF could just as easily be done on a wing of the ISS, or, if absolute isolation is key, you could still just have an LDEF type frame out there and switch individual experiments out, packing them into a smaller payload bay.

Yes, but such an experiment, even on the ISS, might be too large to effectively return using a capsule.

It's even more useful to leave those tools and equipment on your space station so you get to use them on multiple missions without lifting them over and over and over again.

Only if you intend to use them there and nowhere else, it'd be more economic to return them to Earth and launch them again, than bother with some sort of plane-change manuver to a totally different orbit.

OK, I'll concede that point, but the time since the last fatality, both in flights and in years, has been much longer with Soyuz.

Which still isn't that applicable, because they're two very different vehicles in two very different situations.

Soyuz has had several "close calls" over the years, for example with orbital modules failing to detach and putting the crew in danger of burning up during reentry. If I recall correctly, this has happened at least twice, and one of these events was quite recent.

The *accident* was caused by bad management. The fatal results of the accident were the result of serious design flaws. The serious design flaws were the result of bad management and bad politics.

Remove the bad management and the bad politics, and neither the accident nor the method by which it occured would happen.

You can't stop things from going wrong, but you can try to lessen the chance.

The question isn't just what the Shuttle gained us vs. what Buran gained the Russians, but also what a more sensible design could have gained us and didn't vs. what Soyuz could have gained the Russians and did.

Well, let me put it this way: if NASA flew Apollo for 30 years, they would have missed out on a lot of things STS has given us.

Remember: you don't have to have success, to have gains. It's a learning process and to learn you have to mess up a portion of the time.

And my point is that a tower/capsule system would have been far more likely to make good on its promises than a spaceplane. At the moment, spaceplanes are like trying to learn to run before you've learned to walk.

No, but the Shuttle was like trying to learn to run before you've learned to walk. If people had regarded the thing as an experimental vehicle (which it rightly was) instead of trying to push the thing into "operational" service immediately (which is pretty much insanity for any aircraft), as well as had realistic goals and concerns instead of wild optimisim to pitch the idea to the government, things with the Shuttle would have faired far, far better.

In the case of the XF-85, I find the distinction between the two a very hard one to make. The entire idea was to be an air-dropped escort fighter.

I can see a very large difference between "air-droppped escort fighter" and "two-stage-to-orbit horizontally launched spaceplane"...

What?! My entire point is that these things *are* intrinsic to wings. For a given weight, a wing cannot be stressed to as many g's as a cylinder (such as a fuselage or wingless cargo pod), and will (in fact, is designed to) provide greater aerodynamic forces than a cylinder. Furthermore, the joint between a wing and a cylinder provides structural weak points that neither would have alone.

Which is also irrelevant when your entire vehicle is disentegrating around you. :shifty:

Could work, but NASA nixed the idea because of the way it cut into payload weight, among other things.

Well, yes. Even worse in terms of cutting into payload weight is a capsule that is itself reentry capable. Nontheless I don't see the problem with a resistant, breakaway pod, such a system has been use on multiple supersonic aircraft.

If you can already have a pod that has a chance of protecting the occupants during a disentegration and potentially allowing their escape, you are better off.

I'd rather take a safer crew than a 5 ton payload increase. Guess that's just the bad politics at work...

Yes. Even the most survivable designs will always have situations that will destroy them. But all else being equal in a multi-stage launch stack, a capsule will always be significantly more survivable than a spaceplane mounted in the same place, and is often easier to mount in safe places.

I dunno... if you have a small spaceplane (X-20, Hermes) launch escape is considerably easier, if I remember correctly the X-20 was supposed to use the upper stage for launch escape.

My point exactly: The cabin survived, but quite possibly lost pressure integrity from the rest of the spacecraft separating from it, and relied on the wings to bring it down safely to the ground. With those gone, it was not survivable.

Which is why you give the crew pressure suits (pretty essential and stupid to go without them, Soyuz for example uses them for good reason) and either parachutes to slow the breakaway pod to a safe landing or (easier and more feasible, providing the crew is able) allow methods for the crew to escape the pod before impact.
 
On a side note: Shenglong's most logical translation is Flying Dragon, according to my girlfriend. Neat. Now continue with your more technical discussion. ;)
 
Just slipped out yesterday:

http://www.spacedaily.com/reports/R...ble_Robotic_Spacecraft_In_The_Offing_999.html

Russian researchers are working on an unmanned spacecraft similar to the U.S. Boeing X-37 Orbital Test Vehicle, Space Troops chief Oleg Ostapenko said on Thursday.

He said, however, it was not clear as yet how it would be used.

"Something has been done along these lines, but as to whether we will use it, only time will tell," Ostapenko said.

The Boeing X-37, used for orbital spaceflight missions, has a length of over 29 ft (8.9 m) and features two angled tail fins.

The spaceplane's first orbital mission was launched on April 22, 2010 with an Atlas V rocket.

Source: RIA Novosti

What's that? They are developing a spacecraft they don't know what's to use for? Or should I feel reassured that Russia is still in the mainstream of spacecraft vogue? :facepalm:
 
Looks like Buran all over again..."they have that, so we will build something similar, even if we don't really need it, just to be on the safe side".

Well, actually "Something has been done along these lines" doesn't mean that an actual spacecraft designing did begin. So maybe there won't be another Buran, or there will be something more usable.
 
Perhaps its a related ''wing'' of research on the flyback booster that Russia are developing?
 
Why talk about it if it's clandestine? Finance, design, build and launch it and let the world wonder... On the other hand, there may be scores of preliminary requirement docs deep within the research institutes... that will never get funding. Camels are in vogue, though...
 
I'll believe it when I see it, 90% of the time new spacecraft designs never leave paper.
 
SPACE.com: China's Mystery Space Plane Project Stirs Up Questions:
As the next secretive flight of the U.S. Air Force's robotic X-37B mini-shuttle draws closer, analysts are keeping a close eye on China’s own potential space plane, the Shenlong.

Last year several Chinese media outlets reported a test flight of the Shenlong space plane that apparently included its airdrop from an H-6 bomber. But the nature of the Shenlong project's testing, as well as what the robot vehicle truly represents, remains sketchy.

Several China watchers in the U.S. have taken a stab at what the Shenlong (Mandarin for "Divine Dragon) might mean, with some experts conjecturing that the craft is simply a tit-for-tat response to the unmanned X-37B space plane.

{...}
 
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