News UARS about to fall from the sky

[astrosammy]

I've changed the scenario to start at the epoch of the orbital elements, not the current system time. That should make the results a bit more comparable.

 

[boogabooga]

Tried astrosammy's rev. 5. Also got impact in the Pacific just west of South America, but a few orbits later and further to the south. I think time compression matters. Has anyone tried NLRMSIS-00 instead of Jacchia-Gill?

 

[Wishbone]

Folks, won't work properly until Dr. "M" has implemented dependence on solar activity and jet streams.

 

[RisingFury]

I think time compression matters.

Even the frame rate matters.

As you can all see, even NASA isn't releasing any predicted landing position, because even they can't come up with a good estimate. Just getting the day correctly is quite an achievement.

 

[tl8]

My first run showed Australia getting hammered again...SW of Brisbane.

I will do what Xyon does if it ends up in my backyard

 

[orb]

SPACE.com: NASA: Huge Defunct Satellite Will Fall to Earth This Week:

"Re-entry is expected Sept. 23, plus or minus a day,"

 

[Wally]

So, if it drops on my porch, can I keep it?

 

[RisingFury]

So, if it drops on my porch, can I keep it?

Sure. Though I would consider it a hazard to your health. After reentry parts of it may be extremely hot and parts extremely cold. Not to mention any toxic materials and propellant residuals...

 

[Jarvitä]

In other words, if you see it plunge into the ground, you may want to leave it there for a few hours to cool and vent any propellant residue before putting it in a display case. I know I won't be calling NASA if it drops into my backyard. :lol:

 

[orb]

SPACE.com: FEMA Prepared for Dead NASA Satellite's Plunge to Earth This Week

 

[RisingFury]

In other words, if you see it plunge into the ground, you may want to leave it there for a few hours to cool and vent any propellant residue before putting it in a display case. I know I won't be calling NASA if it drops into my backyard. :lol:

Pfft! I wouldn't give it back even if they threatened to sue me! :lol:

 

[T.Neo]

I'd be more scared of propellant residue than NASA. :shifty:

What propellants did UARS have onboard? How much of them would have been expended before this natural deorbit?

 

[astrosammy]

I guess the fact that they did not deorbit it but only sent it to a lower orbit shows that all of it should be expended.

 

[orb]

Thierry Legault - UARS a few days before reentry

 

[T.Neo]

I guess the fact that they did not deorbit it but only sent it to a lower orbit shows that all of it should be expended.

But there should still be some residual propellant in the tanks, no?

 

[ky]

Anyone up for a UARS add-on? :shrug:

 

[orb]

Florida Today - The Flame Trench: Update on when, where chunks of falling satellite might hit:

{...}

Debris from the space agency's defunct Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite poses a 1-in-3,200 risk of hitting someone, according to a space agency analysis.

Depending on the exact altitude at which the satellite's final plunge starts, most likely on Friday, the debris could scatter anywhere from Siberia to South America.

If the satellite enters over a populated part of the world, "people should see quite a show," resembling a shooting star, even in the daytime, says NASA orbital debris expert Nicholas Johnson of the Johnson Space Center in Houston.

{...}

SPACE.com: Huge NASA Satellite Falling to Earth Is Largest in 30 Years

 

[Ghostrider]

It would be a waste if it ended up falling into the South American rainforests before anyone could build a military base underneath it...

 

[orb]

SPACE.com:

• Doomed NASA Satellite Spotted in Amateur Astronomer Video
• What Are the Odds You'll Get Struck by NASA's Falling Satellite?
• Falling NASA Satellite Could Spark Stunning Light Show

Florida Today - The Flame Trench: NASA satellite expected to fall to Earth Friday

CBS News Space: Spotting UARS re-entry will require patience -- and lots of luck

 

[N_Molson]

From one of the articles above, this map shows it can deorbit nearly anywhere (high inclination) :

I guess that predicting the dynamics of such a small object of irregular shape is nearly impossible until the lasts hours...

So, here they bet on New Guinea / Coral Sea...