Asteroid 2024 YR4

[Topper]

Hello, this asteroid which has been discovered on 27 December 2024, will hopefully flyby earth very close, but acutal there is a 1 in 77 chance that it hit earth on 22 December 2032. This might be the highest value since a long time... Today it has been rated 3 on the Torino scale...

 

[kuddel]

Current calculations give a 1% or greater chance of collision capable of localized destruction. Most likely, new telescopic observations will lead to reassignment to Level 0.

From wikipedia atricle "Meaning of ratings" chapter on "3" (Level or Scale).
(Emphasis is mine)

 

[Topper]

 

[Urwumpe]

I could name a few places that it could hit....

 

[Topper]

Now we point one of our best instrument to this little rock:

James Webb Space Telescope will study asteroid 2024 YR4 – Rocket Science

News from the edge of gravity

blogs.esa.int

 

[GLS]

Let's see what comes from JWST, but in the last few days the number of observations have decreased and thus the uncertainty is not going down.
From wiki:

0.00114 AU (171,000 km; 0.44 LD)

± 712,000 km

1:48 (2.1%)

IMO it seems likely that we'll have a significant uncertainty until it comes back around in 2028.

 

[Topper]

As I undertood the blog, the focus of that investigation is more to estimate the size and find out more about the material, to estimate the potential damage of an potential impact and it's also important to know that stuff to plan deffence messures (in the low probability case of a collision). I'm not sure if the observation with the JWST helps to predict the path, but maybe yes, because the point is that the flight path is not only related to the "orbital parameters", but also other effects like the Jarkowski-Effekt, which might be related to the material. Some experts said, there will be no significant changes in the propability of an impact unitl the next encounter in 2028, and even if they know all orbital elements exactly for this moment, I'm not sure, if they would be able to calculate if it will impact definitely or not.

 

[steph]

Well, perhaps we actually do need a good scare. This won't cause (too much) widespread damage, even if it does hit. With the climate crisis getting worse, the 'why invest in space exploration when we have our own planet to fix' trend will only grow bigger as well, so we might see less investment in the detection and deflection programs.

In a way, the worse outcome would be a miss and everyone forgetting about it.
Otherwise, either a deflection or a hit might help drive home the idea that this kind of stuff needs to be taken seriously, especially now, when we also have the means to do something about it. The Chelyabinsk one came out of the blue, and probably only the shallow angle of entry made the difference between a nasty story and a mass casualty event.

The fact that we have years to prepare , along with another close pass, is a huge luxury.

Edit: and no, that doesn't mean I'm ok with the prospect of thousands suffering or worse, but hopefully they'll have had time to relocate if it does happen.

 

[GLS]

The latest estimate took a good chunk out of the uncertainty, but it is now a bit closer to Earth...

0.00099 AU (148,000 km; 0.39 LD)

± 481,000 km

1:38 (2.6%)

 

[Arvil]

Maybe the best scenario is that YR4 just misses the Earth near the atmosphere, and it hit’s the moon on the way back out, makes a bright Bang, and the public news relays the opinion of scientists that it coulda been us. It scares the bejesus out of everyone, then they realize why we work on defenses for this.

 

[GLS]

Much, much better now!

https://twitter.com/x/status/1892338055354159256

 

[GLS]

Even better!

https://twitter.com/x/status/1892631907646447746

 

[GLS]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1892867453069201812

 

[GLS]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1894139589763186772

 

[Arvil]

Even though the probably may drop to zero in the near future, the 2032 visit may be a great time to test out another phase of planet defense, just see if they can move it’s orbit.

 

[Boxx]

just see if they can move it’s orbit

for sure nobody should try with YR4... due to the risk to THEN create a collision trajectory

 

[Arvil]

Maybe the inclination can be changed enough to permanently miss.

 

[Max-Q]

Maybe so, but it should be done after 2032

 

[Topper]

After the JWS observation, the impact chance for the Moon is rated to 4%:

Space Rock That Threatened Earth Now Eyes the Moon With 4% Impact Chance

A near-Earth asteroid that briefly became the highest-risk space object in recorded history has astronomers shifting their attention to a new potential

scienceblog.com

 

[GLS]

https://twitter.com/x/status/2023525827892461763

https://twitter.com/x/status/2024232256890687685