What if a space plan is announced tomorrow? (hypotetical)

Kyle

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Lets make a scenario here. What if (this is all hypothetical of course) for some reason, either to avoid the economy and health care, felt Florida needed an economic boost, what ever, Obama announced that he wanted to land a man on Mars, skipping the moon totally, in 10 years. What would it cost? How would it work? What rocket would you think they would use? What propulsion would they use? What about public reaction? Political reaction from both political parties? I know Bill Nelson would be all for it ;).

Don't turn this into a political argument or a bash Ares and Orion argument please. :)
 
Assuming a 2020 deadline, I would say that Mars Direct style on-site generation of propellant (or anything else requiring a nuclear reactor being launched) is a nonstarter. We WILL need a heavy launch vehicle, however--whether it's not-Shuttle-C, Jupiter, Delta IV Superheavy (the version with 6+ Common Cores), Ares V, or whatever, we'll still need something that can launch at least eighty tonnes per flight. We'll also definitely need to do Earth Orbital Rendevous on it--the vessel is almost certain to use chemical rocket propulsion and thus will need a few hundred tonnes of fuel brought up to Low Earth Orbit for it.

Publically and politically, anybody who strongly opposes government-funded spaceflight or the Obama administration will probably not be swayed by ANY attempt to promote spaceflight--but then again these are the same people that already think that going to the moon is a bad idea, so the administration won't be making any NEW enemies from such a move.

On the plus side however, a strong and successful Mars program would allow the Obama administration to grab a piece of Kennedy-style glory, which would do wonders for its popularity among anybody who isn't already an opponent. It would also do a considerable amount to reverse the perception that America has spent the last thirty-odd years sliding into an anti-science attitude as exemplified by the amount of media and legislative attention we give to "faith before science" issues such as evolution vs. creation.

Politics aside, a Mars effort would create tens of thousands of engineering and IT jobs directly, as well as the tens of thousands of jobs necessary to support them (all those engineers need to be fed and cleaned up after, and somebody has to construct their factories, etc.). We would see a boost to the related industries comparable to that seen with the moon race. Furthermore, the increased demand for technically-educated people would in turn increase the number of people choosing to study such fields in college (and possibly an increase in overall college enrollment numbers). The magnitude of such increases will scale in proportion to the amount of money spent on non-administrative parts of the program.

For an actual mission architecture, I am in favor of one that uses a "core" vehicle consisting of the main habitat/service modules on one end connected by a boom/truss to a set of rocket engines on the other (say, two to four J-2X or other large restartable-in-orbit hydrogen engines). To this would be mated the Earth Reentry Capsule (something similar to the currently planned Orion Command Module) and the Mars Lander at the bow end, while a number of large fuel tanks would be clustered around the central boom/truss--these would be jetissoned in pairs after Trans-Mars insertion and Mars Orbit Insertion as they are used up. If sufficient delta-v budget can be spared for an Earth Orbit Insertion burn (or a heat shield provided for aerocapture) at the return to Earth, then the whole core unit can be reused.
 
It'll also create jobs overseas and or help jobs. Most of the equipment i bet won't come directly from the states, (Example: Europe). Also it will make jobs at tracking stations and relay stations.
The whole programme will need, Engineers (Pretty much all fields) Physicians, Medical doctors, geologists, biologists, geo physicians, astronauts (NO DUH!) flight controllers (in there respective fields of research), little old ladies to type the flight plans ;), builders, contractors, gullible politicians to go with the plan ;).
From the people who nail in the metal for the spacecraft, to the person who stitches the seat liners.
I think it'll create more jobs than the moon race, but it'll be tougher.
Thanks.
Ryan.
 
Lets make a scenario here. What if (this is all hypothetical of course) for some reason, either to avoid the economy and health care, felt Florida needed an economic boost, what ever, Obama announced that he wanted to land a man on Mars, skipping the moon totally, in 10 years.
A live man, or a dead man? We could totally do the latter.
 
I think we would see possibly an early cancellation/reduction of flights in the shuttle/ISS programe, and a mission plan similar to Mars Direct split up and launched on a vehicle similar to Not-shuttle-C.
 
Mars pathfinder found an ancient hard disk containing trillions of dollars that were deposited by an alien bank centuries ago. It contains so much money that it makes the trip to Mars quite cost effective.

Also, an alien healthcare precursor device was discovered. Its primary function was to keep health price anomalies under control.

This is the only hypothetical situation in which I might see a strong will to start a space program.
 
I think we would see possibly an early cancellation/reduction of flights in the shuttle/ISS programe, and a mission plan similar to Mars Direct split up and launched on a vehicle similar to Not-shuttle-C.

"Early cancellation" of the Shuttle probably can't happen at this point, since the Shuttle is due to stop flying entirely within the next 24 months anyway unless they extend it, and the speed of bureaucracy is such that by the time they could dismantle it all, the last flight would be under assembly. The money for the 2010 flights is pretty much already spent.

I can see something similar to Mars Direct except that I am 90% sure that it will NOT include using nuclear reactors--Mars Direct as it stands requires one to produce the fuel for the return to Earth using gases from the Martian atmosphere. Powering such a system on the Martian surface with solar panels at the same power level would require almost as much mass as just carrying the return fuel instead. I am pretty sure that all fuel will be brought from Earth.
 
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