Discussion Proposal to keep Shuttles till 2017

I can see the logic in redesigning the shuttle system, but with the current funding and timeframe, I really don't think that's practical. Besides, the current shuttle design served (and continues to serve) well. After all, if it ain't broke, don't fix it.
 
@Tycho

Was the horse and buggy broke?
Was the way without civilization broke?
Was the bow and arrow broke?
Was the world without computers broke?
Was the world without the internet broke?
Was the world without multi gigahertz processors broke?
Was the world broke when the saturn 5 was cancelled?
Was the world broke without humanity?
 
*chanting* "new launch vehicle! new launch vehicle! new launch vehicle!*

I feel that they should build their own spacecraft. :rolleyes:
 
Realize, though, that I mean what I said in moderation. I see no problem with progress (otherwise I wouldn't be so interested in human spaceflight and thus Orbiter). Progress must come at a time in which the proper resources are available. If the private sector does start contracting shuttle missions, than proper funds may start to accumulate for an evolved space transportation system. When that comes about, not only has commercial spaceflight evolved, but the technological ability to do so comes as well.
 
I can see the logic in redesigning the shuttle system, but with the current funding and timeframe, I really don't think that's practical. Besides, the current shuttle design served (and continues to serve) well. After all, if it ain't broke, don't fix it.

I also disagree. It's too heavy. I like the ideas behind the Orion program much better. All that weight of the shuttle could be tons of cargo to leave in space!
 
It appears that I've been misunderstood. I agree exactly with what you're saying, Statickid. I was referring only to commercial use of the shuttle. It might be better for commercial companies to use them as-is temporarily until a more efficient system can be developed and flight-tested.
 
Although the developments of spacecraft cannot necessarily be predicted based upon unpredictable funding and other constraints, you (jinglesassy) may very well be correct in your statement, and I don't mean to contradict you on that point. I do think, however, that whichever route is chosen to pave the way to orbit for commercial corporations will take some time. Either way, it simply won't be an immediate thing.

It is interesting, though, to think about the possibilities when hearing about proposals like this one. And it's interesting to think of the shuttles as potentially commercial spacecraft. Likewise, it is exciting to follow the development of purely commercial spacecraft such as the SpaceX Dragon.
 
I think NASA would be better served by expanding the commercial programs and helping make those operational than by trying to keep the shuttles flying. Flying a shuttle cost a heck of a lot, and most of the work force(plus the manufacturing capacity) is already gone, so to get that back it would take time, money, and political will. There also doesn't seem to be any companies clamoring for commercialized shuttle flights, so I don't see much of a point. Keeping Endeavour in near flyable condition seems interesting, though why is NASA planning to do that? How many more missions can be flown after STS-135?
 
I think NASA would be better served by expanding the commercial programs

NASA don't have any commercial programmes. They are prevented from commercial activities by congressional law so that's not an option.

NASA is a Government agency. They cannot and do not do their own thing. They do what Congress tells them to do. There are many at NASA who would love to go the commercial route, keep the shuttle flying, build something else but they are limited by the law.
 
I didn't mean what I said that way. I meant putting more funding towards CCDev and similar efforts at NASA to develop private sector vehicles capable of doing LEO resupply and crew rotation. I see now program wasn't the best word to use, sorry:tiphat:.
 
Why would anyone waste money on "commercial" Shuttle launches? How much does it cost to launch one, half a billion dollars? It can't possibly make any profit - it's the most expensive launch vehicle in the world. If some billionaire wants to go to space, by 2017 it won't be a problem to buy a ticket from SpaceX.

Just retire it already and use the money for something better. Or if you just want to throw it away (I am stealing this idea), put it into a bag and launch it to a safe low-Earth orbit. Whoever gets to it first can have it :)
 
The shuttles costs are basically fixed at 1billion USD a year. Most of that is staff, launch pad and equipment costs. If you can fly 20 times in a year you'll start to make a profit. The problem is that the shuttle needs a lot more post landing maintenance that was envisaged.

Of course, this was the original plan for the space transportation system but it never worked out like that.
 
The shuttles costs are basically fixed at 1billion USD a year. Most of that is staff, launch pad and equipment costs. If you can fly 20 times in a year you'll start to make a profit. The problem is that the shuttle needs a lot more post landing maintenance that was envisaged.

Of course, this was the original plan for the space transportation system but it never worked out like that.

Even 1.3 billion, that was the last number I had in mind, for a flat number of six flights per year. Six flights more in a year would only add around 500 million USD, but require additional investments into the ground infrastructure - and turn the 1.3 billion for the first six flights into 1.5 - 1.6 billion USD per year, because you have more hangars and more ground vehicles, as well as more employees to pay.

Never forget: The spacecraft, even the launch vehicle, is just the peak of the iceberg. The part you see in TV is only the most visible tiny contribution. The real magic happens outside your view. Even the VAB is tiny compared to the part that plans flights, calculates budgets, trains astronauts and handles the whole kilotons of paperwork that have to be produced for each flight. If you see SRB segments arrive at the VAB, try to imagine how much effort was behind making sure that these segments after a few thousand kilometers of travel arrive right on the time they are needed. That is a whole lot of phone calls behind that single event.

Which is why complaining about money being wasted for space is extremely stupid: The money is spend deep down on Earth, and the people that complain loudest are always those who usually defend the trickle-down hypothesis - as long as it tickles down from their own bank accounts.

Around 230,000 people are still needed every year for making the Space Shuttle run. Only around 15,000 of these are employed at NASA or USA. The rest are the various subcontractors, outsourced specialists, military and just lowest-level service workers. Or do you think astronaut trainees clean up their own vomit after a centrifuge ride?


( edit: )
If you want to operate a private space plane, you need to scale things down a lot and remove a lot of "committee decisions". The Space Shuttle is a great 1970s spacecraft with some small updates, but if you need to get the most bang out of every buck you spend, you would not decide the same way as the NASA people did. For example the on-board computers have actually been badly obsolete when the Shuttle was designed, the AP-101S update later made it at least comparable to other radiation hardened computers of that era. Today you wouldn't use it, you would get a standard satellite computer from the shelf, using radiation hardened chips that are maximal 3 years old at the time the computer was designed (The AP-101 was already used in Skylab, think about it). Also you wouldn't throw so many different technologies together only because they are common to the people who have to build and operate the thing.

A private Space shuttle would also do away with the payload bay for the next 30 years. It was too soon for this, a smaller EVA platform with some small payload mounting points would be good enough. The whole spacecraft could maybe be weighting just 35 tons (wet launch mass) at the end, still carry seven astronauts, have still room for docking port or external airlock, and still have a RMS. It could have a launch escape system.

The question is: Can you sell such a thing to customers? The price would also depend on how many such spacecraft you build. if you just assemble have a dozen of them, it doesn't pay out compared to expendable vehicles - in the time until you need to provide the next generation of it, you can't do enough flights to justify the increased R&D and manufacture costs.
 
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tickle -> trickle

People may be getting weird images of tickling an account...

:)
 
BTW, I just used a small thought for inventing a new important formula in spaceflight. :)

It is just simply the factor, how much more expensive a reusable spacecraft can become in terms of complete program costs per flight item, including spacecraft losses by accidents, in comparison to an expendable capsule:

[math]R_r = \frac{N}{n_0 + N \cdot P(LOV)}[/math]

N is the number of planned missions in the program, not accounting reflights because of launch accidents.
[math]n_0[/math] is the number of reusable spacecraft, that the fleet should have in the program.
[math]P(LOV)[/math] is the probability of a loss of vehicle accident per mission.

It is not sophisticated, and could be made more accurate by taking more factors in account, but it already visualizes the big problem well:

If you want to do 100 missions with 5 spacecraft at a 2% chance to lose a vehicle, these reuseable spacecraft are limited to maximal 14.28 times the price of a single expendable spacecraft. This includes the overhauling between each mission of the vehicle. If you can get a Soyuz mission done for lets say 100 million USD, your reuseable spaceflight program can maximal cost [math]14.28 \cdot 5 \cdot 100.0 = 7142.86[/math] million USD. Including R&D and flying the missions.

I would say, that is currently nearly impossible to achieve.
 
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