Augustine commission/Ares alternatives

[Lunar_Lander]

As far as I can see it, the results have been published! Main point is that Constellation is seriously under-budgeted.

They also expressed the wish to extend ISS Operations until 2020, but that money that will be needed for that would delay Ares until 2028. Also, the ground facilities needed for the Moonshot cannot be built, so that Ares V is rendered unnecessary.

If there is no increase in budget, they have to cancel Ares I.
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[Andy44]

In other words, it's Space Shuttle 1972 all over again.

 

[dougkeenan]

If there is no increase in budget, they have to cancel Ares I.

http://rocketsandsuch.blogspot.com/2009/08/bombshell.html

 

[Kyle]

Well, I'm going to say nuts to the Ares I. That thing is like flying with a dead elephant on your back, Not-Shuttle C or Direct will likely be the launcher, oh keep the Ares V that baby is sexy, could launch a rockin Space Station like skylab easy with that or build a Station around the Earth and eject it to Mars.

 

[tblaxland]

In other words, it's Space Shuttle 1972 all over again.

Sorry, but what does that mean? My knowledge of the political history of the early space shuttle program is basically non-existent.

 

[ijuin]

To be brief, budget cuts in Shuttle development forced delays so that the spacecraft was not ready until after the loss of the space station that it was intended to support (Skylab).

 

[Andy44]

Actually, it was worse than that. NASA never intended to retire all the Saturn hardware in order to pay for the shuttle. They even thought that along with the shuttle they would get a space station for the shuttle to service. NASA didn't understand that they only existed to beat the Russians in Kennedy's little race to the Moon. After Apollo 11 the days of the space gravy train were numbered. That's why we wound up with a half-reusable shuttle, no Saturn rockets, no return to the moon, a dead Skylab, and had to wait 20 years before finally going halfsies with the Russians on a new space station.

And now we can't even pay for a simple Saturn I-class launcher to put a simple capsule into LEO.

At least NASA has enough money to pay for cool-looking video animations of what it might look like, so we can build it in Orbiter, which is the only place manned spaceflight ever seems to go anywhere these days.

 

[Moonwalker]

NASA didn't understand that they only existed to beat the Russians in Kennedy's little race to the Moon.

NASA was founded, with good reason, when Eisenhower was in office, primarily because of the growing communistic influence and their steps into space. That was what Kennedy later wanted to overcome, with good reason. Humans who love freedom can be quite happy with those historic turns.

NASA did not only quite understand but also became a space agency that has done, and still does more, than any other space agency. It is not only beating the growing communistic threat in past days and keeping jobs these days. NASA has the assignemnt to take a leading role in space achievements, which it does until today. I don't think that the past and present manned and especially unmanned successes have to be listed, that are incomparable to any other agency and their much shorter lists.

 

[ijuin]

When China starts orbiting the Moon and preparing for a landing mission while the USA hasn't even built the hardware for it, then the politicians will panic and start funding manned spaceflight again. I seriously doubt that American politicians will like the prospect of a Communist country (even if the People's Republic of China is fast becoming Communist in name only) being the only ones with a presence on the lunar surface.

In other words, the only way that I think that politicians are really going to get behind funding more spaceflight is if they see glory (or money for their home districts) to be had from it.

 

[Moonwalker]

Some people are too optimistic I guess. China is not going to cause a new race in space, sadly. They do not intend to land on the Moon before 2024. And they know why. Their program is not in best shape, i.e. quite slow. They did only 3 manned flights within the last 6 years. The next manned flight is not going to happen before 2011, which is a break of 3 years.

The chinese space people involved in the program can be happy in case they get enough money to develope and test systems until the late 2020's / early 2030's which they can use to successfully land humans on the Moon. But at present they want to operate a space laboratory in low earth orbit, and to send a lot of probes to the Moon. Even this still is nothing more than daydreams. All we have seen is 3 manned flights within more than half a decade, and in 2011 it will be 4 flights within a decade.

 

[Urwumpe]

Forget China. The really worst insult for the USA would be, if Europe lands on the moon first and without the USA on-board. That is pretty much the most unlikely and most dramatic scenario... Even the Iranians first would be less painful.

 

[movieman]

Forget China. The really worst insult for the USA would be, if Europe lands on the moon first and without the USA on-board.

Only if the astronauts are French .

 

[Brad]

Actually, it was worse than that. NASA never intended to retire all the Saturn hardware in order to pay for the shuttle. They even thought that along with the shuttle they would get a space station for the shuttle to service. NASA didn't understand that they only existed to beat the Russians in Kennedy's little race to the Moon. After Apollo 11 the days of the space gravy train were numbered. That's why we wound up with a half-reusable shuttle, no Saturn rockets, no return to the moon, a dead Skylab, and had to wait 20 years before finally going halfsies with the Russians on a new space station.

And now we can't even pay for a simple Saturn I-class launcher to put a simple capsule into LEO.

Can I get an AMEN to what brother Andy just said?! Right on the nail. I rather have a program that DOES something. Hopefully ARES isn't dead. I don't think Direct has a snow balls chance in _ _ _ _! We need to listen to people like Dr. Robert Zubrin and David Baker. If we did what they asked in the 1990's, we'd already be sitting happy on Mars.

 

[T.Neo]

I don't think Direct has a snow balls chance in _ _ _ _!

DIRECT certainly has a better chance of going somehwere then Ares.

I don't mind the payload capacity of DIRECT- two DIRECT launches yield almost the same payload capacity as a single Ares V- not bad for the advantages DIRECT offers over Ares.

 

[Moonwalker]

Beside on paper DIRECT has not a better chance, nor a worse chance than Ares. It has no chance at all. Because NASA has chosen Ares and does not care about DIRECT.

The most likely scenario I can see still is an early end of the ISS (2016) and a budget increase rather than a change to an alternative.

 

[T.Neo]

Because NASA has chosen Ares and does not care about DIRECT.

If that was the case, there would not have been an Augustine comission...

 

[Moonwalker]

If that was the case, there would not have been an Augustine comission...

My impression is that the comission basically is something for the public and to put oil on troubled waters. I think the result will be a budget increase rather than a change to an alternative. But we'll see in end of September what their final report will look like...

 

[Spicer]

Ares 1 is a mess. I don't understand why NASA is so against using Delta IV + developing the Orion for a ride on that.

 

[Ark]

Ares 1 is a mess. I don't understand why NASA is so against using Delta IV + developing the Orion for a ride on that.

Because someone has to look out for that little empire of people that kept the Shuttle flying.

 

[Lunar_Lander]

Obama said that he wants to follow the recommendations, that means that Ares I is delayed or scrapped, for ISS he hopes for a commercial company to pick up operations. Concerning Orion, he said that it could be a good backup to a commercial capsule which flies to the ISS.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125089632848150593.html
http://www.space.com/spacenews/spacenews_summary.html#BM_1