Launch News (Failure) Phobos-Grunt and YingHuo-1 atop Zenit-2 on November 8/9, 2011

[NovaSilisko]

http://www.n2yo.com/?s=37872

If this tracking is to be believed, it just hit periapsis at 135.63 km about a minute ago from this posting.

 

[tl8]

Unconfirmed reports that it crashed this morning south of Charleville.

Police are looking into it.

 

[NovaSilisko]

Unconfirmed reports that it crashed this morning south of Charleville.

Police are looking into it.

Well, at least according to the tracking site I mentioned, it's still flying, and is currently over the North Pacific, somewhat near the Aleutian islands.

 

[tl8]

Well, at least according to the tracking site I mentioned, it's still flying, and is currently over the North Pacific, somewhat near the Aleutian islands.

Oh, I would bet lots of money that the report is false. I can't even see it mentioned on the web. Just presenting information as I here it

 

[NovaSilisko]

Oh, I would bet lots of money that the report is false. I can't even see it mentioned on the web. Just presenting information as I here it

Ah. I'm very hopeful it DOES fall over land though, so we can get at least a tiny bit of science out of it... If anything, I hope the return capsule floats.

 

[orb]

New Roscosmos' estimate for PhG reentry is between 20:41 and 01:05 MSK [16:41-21:05 UTC].

• Apogee: 153.4 km
• Perigee: 133.5 km
• Inclination: 51.42 degrees.
• Orbital period: 87.20 min.

 

[Urwumpe]

Luckily I am far out of the danger zone... by 60 km or so. :lol:

 

[SiberianTiger]

Other estimates (http://www.spaceflight101.com/phobos-grunt-re-entry-information.html):

Spaceflight101: January 15, 2012 - 17:54 UTC +/- 60 Minutes
USSTRATCOM: January 15, 2012 - 16:11 to 18:35 UTC
Harro Zimmer: January 15, 2012 - 17:49 UTC +/- 45 Minutes
Ted Molczan #1: January 15, 2012 - 16:37 UTC +/- 90 Minutes
Ted Molczan #2: January 15, 2012 - 20:07 +/- 129 Minutes
Aerospace Corp.: January 15, 2012 - 19:21 UTC +/- 03 Hours
Roscosmos: January 15, 2012 - 18:53 UTC +/- 130 Minutes

Soon we'll know whos atmosphere model is the best.

Spaceflight101: Ground Track of most probable Entry Orbit

Why the Argument of Perigee could have moved?

 

[Sunhillow]

I don't know if this has already been posted here:
"Life" orbit view, but they don't say how accurate it is
http://www.lizard-tail.com/isana/tracking/index.html?&target=phobos_grunt

 

[garyw]

There is a semi-live update of this on twitter, You can see the rapid decay of the orbit from the data posted there. This is the latest update:

Sun 15 Jan 15:00UT #PhobosGrunt orbit 87.15 minutes 121.40 x 138.75 ħ=130.08 km Position 29.8S,16.2W alt=126.9km Lit ~Re-entry 2h

 

[Urwumpe]

There is a semi-live update of this on twitter, You can see the rapid decay of the orbit from the data posted there. This is the latest update:

Sun 15 Jan 15:00UT #PhobosGrunt orbit 87.15 minutes 121.40 x 138.75 ħ=130.08 km Position 29.8S,16.2W alt=126.9km Lit ~Re-entry 2h

Where would a 2h reentry put it?

 

[orb]

Another update from Roscosmos: 21:30 - 23:12 MSK [17:30 - 19:12 UTC].

 

[Urwumpe]

Looks like a rather good chance for it to fall on land.

 

[Thunder Chicken]

Any word on re-entry? Heavens Above puts it over S. America now.

EDIT: My bad, my brain is 1 hr off of UTC. I'll make some lunch and check back in a bit.

 

[Fabri91]

Extremely interesting, southern Europe is right in the middle of that last orbit's bold groundtrack.

 

[garyw]

Latest update:

Sun 15 Jan 16:30UT #PhobosGrunt orbit 87.02 minutes 119.20 x 131.86 ħ=125.53 km Position 20.7S,29.5W alt=122.4km Lit re-entry window

 

[SiberianTiger]

(post made by mistake deleted)

 

[orb]

21:50 - 22:34 MSK [17:50 - 18:34 UTC] with center point at 22:08 MSK [18:08 UTC], according to Roscosmos.

 

[Thunder Chicken]

I wonder if Roscosmos is putting the projected impact right in the middle of the Atlantic just to keep people from freaking out in the last few hours.

What would they announce if they determined it was going to go down in, say, Barcelona, or Venice?

 

[Fabri91]

I don't think so: even the Soyuz, with a known orbit, known shape and known attitude can land with a precision of several kms, I guess that really is the most likely impact point they have determined, and nothing more.