News Earthquake in Italy

[Ghostrider]

I don't know how many of you are following the situation there, but I've been doing that desping being hospitalized and it's really, really sad.

Apart from the death toll and the thousands left without a house, the damage to the city of L'Aquila and the neighboring towns is simply terrible. As much as I know that people come first, seeing the old city wounded so grievously is really painful: I have a soft spot for L'Aquila, been living there for a while with my wife way before we got married, and I came to love the old town with its 99+ churches, the historical buildings, fortress and walls.

As it's always the case with Italian towns that old, you couldn't turn around without seeing at least three historical landmarks. The little shops too, the restaurants where if they saw you were a foreigner they'd treat you to samples of local foodstuff (great), the bookstores, the university, the old electronics stores where sometimes you would come across a couple of digital archeology pieces. It hurts to think how much of it is either badly damaged or gone.

And the people, friendly and down-to-earth. I just hope they can find the strength to fight back and rebuild. I've spent much of monday night and most of yesterday trying to contact my wife's ex-colleagues at the hospital of L'Aquila - which has been heavily damaged - and finally I got through and could tell her they're well. Cannot say 'thank God' because thanking God our friends are safe when many others are dead feels like blasphemy even to the worst of believers (which is probably me).

I'm trying to organize some kind of help through a NGO I work with but it may take some time. Meanwhile, if you're in Italy and are in condition to do so, check at the blood bank. The need for blood donations has been recalled insofar as the quake is concerned, but it's almost Easter and unfortunately there's going to be a need for the red stuff because of car accidents.

If you can afford it, there is the possibility to contribute funds. I'm checking out the options right now.

Anyone here from Italy, and especially from that region, all my sympathies. I can only begin to understand what it's like for you. Coraggio.

 

[movieman]

Yeah, I was setting up a satellite installation about 50km away and the quake was pretty bad even at that distance: caused some damage to the roof of the building and knocked out the antenna for a day while we tracked down which cable had been broken by the ground movement. I'd been planning to stop by l'Aqulla to visit some of the tourist places, but now most of them are just gone. I think pretty much all the police and paramedics in Italy must be up there from the number we've seen or heard going that way.

 

[SiberianTiger]

My sympathies to everybody who fell victim to the force of nature and all their relatives. How long ago an earthquake of similar power happened in Italy?

 

[movieman]

My sympathies to everybody who fell victim to the force of nature and all their relatives. How long ago an earthquake of similar power happened in Italy?

Over 20 years, from what I've been told; I believe the last time there was an earthquake as powerful as the aftershock last night was nearly a decade ago. Fortunately there's been nothing major for over 12 hours now so it's probably settling down.

 

[simonpro]

Over 20 years, from what I've been told; I believe the last time there was an earthquake as powerful as the aftershock last night was nearly a decade ago. Fortunately there's been nothing major for over 12 hours now so it's probably settling down.

There was a stronger earthquake (M6.4) in 1997. There's also been 3 stronger than the aftershock (M6, M5.9 and M5.8), all in 2002.

 

[dbeachy1]

O-F Staff note: personal attack and related posts removed. Let's please keep it civil, everyone.

 

[Moonwalker]

The posts where civil except for a few attacks (by the usual people). But delete whatever you want. You may delete this too for sure so I better keep spending part of my time in a different community with less desire to delete...

 

[Tex]

The posts where civil except for a few attacks (by the usual people). But delete whatever you want. You may delete this too for sure so I better keep spending part of my time in a different community with less desire to delete...

The posts were removed as they were drowning this thread with negative comments and venturing off-topic. The Moderators are here to do a job and often times have to make difficult decisions as such they do have the ability to use their own discretion. If they feel any thread(s) or post(s) need to be moved, closed, or deleted then they have the ability to carry these actions out as they see fit.

Anytime a Moderator removes a post, it is moved to the staff forum for review. After review by other staff members if we decide any posts which were removed should be a part of the discussion then we will restore those posts, however in this case I suspect all posts removed will not be restored.

 

[MajorTom]

The world's feeling awfully small these days.

My best friend from high school (we grew up in Wisconsin, USA) moved to Italy about 20 years ago, got married, had two kids, and had been living in...you guessed it...L'Aquila most of that time. Recently, I'm relieved to say, he'd moved to another village maybe 50 km to the East.

Shaken up pretty bad, and his house is not liveable, but he and family are OK.

I was simply amazed to hear L'Aquila in the news, and so sad it was for this reason. I have some pretty nice memories from visiting there in 1995.

My deepest sympathies to all those who have died, been injured, or became homeless from this quake. Hang in there, the world's thoughts are with you. Ciao.

 

[Omhra]

It is pretty sad to see the community so crystallized to the point where very crafted words are used as weapons to run-people ideas-off in a hostile way.
The treatment that the Selene stroller received was uncalled for. No matter how contradictory to mainstream he is.
What about the fact that there was the Jouliani warning?
Never mind the prediction accuracy or the “state of the art”.
Should people not have taken special measures? Should they have prepared for “a” looming quake? –No; instead they charged him with fear mongering and seeked the cops on him.

It is a tragedy whenever people are lost in natural disasters and when landmarks are lost for any reason. Even more so when those in control take medieval action and attempt to silence those who would warn us, but for me the tragedy is to see those I admired become so united in behavior that is questionable.
Or is it blasphemous to voice these questions….
The deletion is even more questionable.
What appearance are we pretending to keep?
[FONT=&quot]What do we (you) think mean to this ORBITER phenomenon?[/FONT]

 

[Urwumpe]

Or is it blasphemous to voice these questions….
The deletion is even more questionable.

What was voiced, as some objectively hostile stuff towards people who have friends and relatives in the region, not the question if Italy should have been better prepared for earthquakes. Which requires a clear "yes", there could have been a lot to be done better before, but what was done depended a lot on the city involved. Some cities invested more into getting better protection, others not, possibly some deaths are caused indirectly by the Mafia (corruption and fraud in construction).

But that was not voiced here. I will also not repeat what was voiced here, I leave it to somebody else to mention the war.

 

[Omhra]

My questions... not blasphemous... I see.
Having read all, having waited two days and now having said...

Why is there that trend for the state and the people to diminish science as unknowing chatter?
I heard a USGS representative (I say representative because she seemed not to be a scientist) on NPR saying that "there is just no way" to "predict" quakes. She continued on saying that He got the city wrong but omitted that the region was correct. Perhaps because it was obvious?
But made no effort at all to show that some methods work, but not in all circumstances...
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/us_italy_quake_warning

They do trumpet this side of it loud.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/wor...-Friday-funeral-earthquake-dead.html?ITO=1490

my point is that science is under attack and emotions are aroused by showing you this... or that... and investigating the wrong persons... so, to what end are these things done?
Or are these trends all unrelated and science is just fine?

 

[Urwumpe]

The problem with the "prediction" was, that it was for the wrong region and at the wrong time. He missed the target by "only" 90 km and two weeks.

The technology he uses is not wrong, geologists use such outgassing for some time already, but can't tell if this outgassing is caused by a developing earthquake or by other less dramatic events. You have currently a too high risk of false positives - as you see in the example.

You could maybe create something like a "geoweather" for earthquake regions, and give warnings about an increased risk - but if such a earthquake would develop without outgassing, for example (which is also possible), you failed again.

 

[Omhra]

Perhaps that is the reason Science is so easily discredited these days.
We strive too hard on showing why we cannot.. instead of focusing on how we might. No one is exited about the starting point... the hypothesis... in this case it was thesis....

Facts are: he detected radon. He pointed out that an earthquake was imminent, he tried to warn people, he was investigated and gagged.
And a quake occurred.


Consider that perhaps you are missing my point Urwumpe;

It is not the absolute accuracy of the prediction I am talking about here, But the GAG... the ridiculous treatment of scientific reason.

Science is shoved back into the corner of "noise in the status quo" and we let these pioneers get treated much like criminals because they didn't get it exactly right, because we insist a prediction of this sort be specific to our dwelling and on a particular single rotation of the earth.
And what is 90km miss when quakes cover 100s of sqr Km per event and lapse 100s of years?... ....its an overlap.
Further, what politicians think is acceptable to issue a warning is obviously not what is required to save lives and plan for these events. Even more so if your country is peppered with active volcanic activity and, historically, very destructive eruptions...

The question is, which way would you prefer to err on?

Begins with you. And every one who is a scientist at heart.

 

[Urwumpe]

Facts are: he detected radon. He pointed out that an earthquake was imminent, he tried to warn people, he was investigated and gagged.
And a quake occurred.

Fact: I can measure radon here. In varying dose. But the last Earthquake in my region was a 4.6, caused by the collapse of a former natural gas field - without Radon.

Also, the guy was warning Italy about once every year about a new Earthquake, which did never come. This is not science, this is guessing.

It is not the absolute accuracy of the prediction I am talking about here, But the GAG... the ridiculous treatment of scientific reason.

Galileo was not arrested for being wrong. He was arrested for announcing "scientific truths" without empiric evidence. Later scientists delivered this evidence, Galileo was missing, and instead of being arrested, they became appreciated by the church who had arrested Galileo: Copernicus dedicated his book to the pope,

Science is shoved back into the corner of "noise in the status quo" and we let these pioneers get treated much like criminals...

Lets stop here. It is not science getting shoved back, it was guesswork. And it was not a pioneer, but it was a guy who was always operating one step away from being a outright charlatan. Science did never warn of an immediate Earthquake in Italy. They new about a high risk for Italy, but had no clear indications for a coming one. Science had also warned about the mag 4 Earthquake in Greece a few hours ago, but but with a concrete time - while it is known that the tensions are released in a series of Earthquakes following the faults, but can't tell exactly how fast they travel and where the next Earthquake is more likely.

I could now go on and shout: Repent! A meteor will fall from the sky and hit Germany. I will be right one day. But this is no accurate prediction. If I instead say: Asteroid XYZ26717 will hit Germany on day 56223.2, on 3:22 local time, in the region of Munich - and this happens: I am right. If it instead hits Berlin, I am wrong.

 

[Omhra]

I don't want to make you angry at me, but you do sound a lot like Moonwalker did on climate change... in the sense that you demand exactitude not available...

 

[Urwumpe]

I don't want to make you angry at me, but you do sound a lot like Moonwalker did on climate change...

Please, don't do an argumentation ad moonwalkerum.

I just say it like it is: A warning is useless, if it is for the wrong place, at the wrong time. Or would you prefer sending whole central Italy into early easter holidays for 3 weeks, the next time this guy has a Earthquake warning?

If a claimed explanation is not producing reliable predictions and can't be verified in experimental observation, it is neither scientific, nor a theory.

 

[Omhra]

there that is... the warning should be issued for much wider areas... I am now readding about Jouliani... to see if he is really a cuckoo...

 

[Urwumpe]

there that is... the warning should be issued for much wider areas... I am now readding about Jouliani... to see if he is really a cuckoo...

Do that. And no, a warning for a wider area is not the solution. Remember what an evacuation means (we are not talking about building according to the Earthquake risk - this is science and should be applied, but is not).

If you evacuated according to his warning, the people would have returned with even less care (as the Earthquake did not come until one week later), and would have been caught on the wrong feet, possibly even in a region which was sure anyway, that it was not in the center of the warning (he was 60 km off)

Italian laboratory technician Giampaolo Giuliani claimed the prediction of a major earthquake on Italian television a month before, by measurement of radon emitted from the ground. He was accused of being alarmist by Director of the Civil Defence Guido Bertolaso, and forced to remove his findings from the Internet (old data and descriptions are still on line). He was also reported to police a week previously for "causing fear" among the local population when he predicted an earthquake was imminent in Sulmona, about 50 km (31 mi) from L'Aquila, on 30 March where a 4° quake happened (later Sulmona only suffered minor damages by the 6 April earthquake). Enzo Boschi, the head of the Italian National Geophysics Institute declared: "Every time there is an earthquake there are people who claim to have predicted it. As far as I know nobody predicted this earthquake with precision. It is not possible to predict earthquakes."

 

[Moonwalker]

I heard a USGS representative (I say representative because she seemed not to be a scientist) on NPR saying that "there is just no way" to "predict" quakes.

She is correct in a way, being a scientist or not. Because even scientists say that precise temporal and areal predictions of earthquakes are not possible because of the geological complexity (and yes, climate change is even much more complex). Beside precursor-phenomena and statistical observations like seismic silence, there is still nothing humans can do against, beside to move or to live with that danger (almost the same fits for hurricane regions). Anything else is the usual shoptalk in the aftermath.